Now that Don Baylor has resigned, the Mariners will need a new hitting coach for the 2006 season and beyond. While there's been a lot of speculation about who the new pitching coach might be, there hasn't been much talk about the new hitting coach. However, one guy I would like to see the M's hire is Tim Wallach. As you probably know, Jim Tracy was let go as the manager of the Dodgers because, apparently, he and DePo didn't see eye-to-eye on a few things. Tracy was just hired as Lloyd McClendon's replacement in Pittsburgh and the Dodgers are looking for a new skipper. In an article on the Dodgers official site, I found this quote, "DePodesta said he would allow a new manager to pick his coaching staff." When the Dodgers do hire a new manager, I hope the guy wants to bring in his own hitting coach, because I would love to see the M's snag Wallach. As I'm sure you know, Wallach was the hitting coach when Adrian Beltre had his insane breakthrough in 2004. Some of you might be thinking that Wallach's first year as a hitting coach and Beltre's huge breakthrough are two separate events, linked only by coincidence. While that might be true, it's also possible that Wallach did, in fact, contribute to Beltre's other-worldly 2004 campaign. I did some research on Wallach and Beltre's relationship, and here's what I came up with...
From San Bernadino County Sun (Oct. 4, 2004)
It seems that everyone who has watched a Dodger game this year has a theory on Beltre's emergence. Some say it's his work with new hitting coach Tim Wallach. Some say he's motivated by his impending free agency. Some even say his ankle injury has shortened his swing and made him a more patient hitter.
[snip]
Part of the problem, team sources say privately, is that until Wallach showed up, Beltre didn't learn enough from his hitting coaches, which stunted his development.
"I was immature, in that I didn't have a good approach when I was going to home plate," Beltre said. "I didn't have a good idea of the situation of the game and how the pitcher was probably going to pitch me. The other problem I had for years is that I would get in slumps, and I would try to fix things that I shouldn't have been fixing on my own, and that would just get me deeper in holes. Now, I just stick to one approach the whole year and stay consistent, and it works."
That's where Wallach comes in. Starting in spring training, Wallach worked with all the Dodgers to improve their pitch recognition and patience. It paid off for Beltre, who learned to overcome his weakness for outside pitches and hit better to the opposite field.
Beltre went to the opposite field a lot more in 2004, especially for power. I went through Beltre's spray charts for every stadium for both 2004 and 2005 and recorded the results. Check it out...
I didn't include triples in the chart, because Beltre only hit one in 2004 and 2005 combined. As you can see, the distribution of Beltre's singles from 2004 to 2005 was about the same, although he did hit singles to right field a tad more in 2004, but there wasn't a huge drop-off. The biggest difference comes from his power to the opposite field. Beltre's doubles to RF dropped by 11% from 2004 to 2005 and his home run power in 2005 was almost exclusively to left field. Why the huge drop-off?
From Buster Olney's August 25, 2004 article for ESPN The Magazine titled, "Beltre arrives at next level"
With two strikes, every advance scout and pitcher knew his weakness: Slider or curveball, low and away.
But Tim Wallach, the Dodgers' hitting coach, emphasizes mental preparation before each game and each at-bat, discussing what opposing pitchers might try to do. Through that process, and through his maturation, the huge hole in Beltre's swing has been plugged.
You don't have to be an advance scout or an opposing pitcher to know about Beltre's hole. If you watched the Mariners at all last season, you know that hole's been unplugged. Beltre struck out the most times in his career in 2005 (108) and his second-lowest walk rate. What's interesting is that Beltre's P/PA was the best of his career. That partly explains the career-high strikeout number, because you obviously have to see at least 3 pitches to strikeout. However, a solid P/PA, your'd expect Beltre to A) walk more and B) get more good pitches to hit. Generally, hitters who see a lot of pitches per plate appearance will have a high OBP (see graph). However, in Beltre's case, he posted an OBP of .303 - which would tie for third-worst in his career, .024 points lower than his career average and .085 points lower than last season.
That graph plots the P/PA and OBP of ever Major Leaguer with at-least 350 plate appearances. As you can see, there's a fairly strong correlation between P/PA and OBP. However, Beltre is one of the outliers. The red dot shows his 2005 performance, and the green dot is where his 2004 performance would rank.
While I believe Beltre will improve in 2006 no matter who the hitting coach is, I'd really like to see the Mariners hire Tim Wallach to try and get Beltre back to his 2004 form. It might not help, but it certainly can't hurt!