We know that the Mariners need pitching help this off-season. The big question is how are they going to get it? Ideally, like they discussed over at USS Mariner, the M’s sign Kevin Millwood and then a mid-tier free agent like Esteban Loaiza, or even take a chance on Kevin Brown. However, many people believe that the price of the few upper-tier free agent starting pitchers is going to get out of control. So, if the M’s can’t sign A.J. Burnett or Kevin Millwood, what should they do? They could still sign Loaiza, but I don’t think that’s enough. They could try to trade for a front-line starting pitcher, but let’s face it: the Mariners’ farm system isn’t exactly stocked with first-class talent. On top of that, some of their best prospects (Felix, Lopez, Betancourt, etc) will be starting with Seattle next season. So, I think getting someone like Jason Schmidt or C.C. Sabathia is pretty unlikely. So, instead, I think it would be best to try to trade for *the next* Jason Schmidt. Remember, Schmidt was somewhat of a “diamond in the rough.” Before going to San Francisco, the big righty was 49-53 with a 4.58 ERA. At age 28, through his first six and a half years in the big leagues, he was averaging 6.8 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings. It’s cases like this that remind you how important scouting is – you can’t always rely on the stats. Now, the important question becomes: Who are some guys who could be the next Jason Schmidt? I guess if I knew for certain, I’d be working in a front office – or at least not finishing in last place in my fantasy baseball league! But, all kidding aside, there are some guys who, for one reason or another, intrigue me – AND! – might be available via trade this off-season…
Brett Myers: As Bat-Girl would call it, I have recently developed a “Non-Sexual Man Crush” on Brett Myers. Like I said, it’s pretty recent, so maybe it’s just infatuation at this point, and hasn’t quite reached the “man crush” stage just yet. But, simply put, I like the guy. Check out this comparison between Myers and soon-to-be-multimillionaire A.J. Burnett:
As you can see, Myers is younger, strikes out more and walks less than this year’s best free-agent pitcher (and, BTW, SNLVAR is this). On top of that, Myers has some pretty dramatic splits. He’s been doing much better on the road, where he has an ERA of 2.87 while holding opposing batters to a line of .196/.287/.365. At home, he’s been getting lit up, posting an ERA of 4.30 with opposing batters teeing off on him to the tune of .269/.318/.452. Maybe that’s why he’s not the most popular guy in Philly. Tom Goodman from the blog Balls, Sticks & Stuff recently said, “Brett Myers never met a writer yet where, given the opportunity to take a shot at the local press or fans, he would pass it up. This guy has one big chip on his shoulder and, frankly, he pitches like someone who is pissed off all the time. He is the biggest disappointment on a team that has had more than its share of disappointing figures.” So maybe, just maybe, the Phillies won’t even offer arbitration to Myers and the Mariners can just sign him, instead of trading for him. Perhaps it’s just wishful thinking, but my fingers are crossed!
Ted Lilly: Unlike Myers, I’ve liked Lilly for a few years now. Watching him battle injuries and struggle for the past couple seasons has been tough, but my selfishness sometimes gets the best of me and I think it could be in the Mariners’ favor that Lilly hasn’t done too well. I mean, how much would you really have to give up for a 29 year old with a 5.46 ERA? Granted, Lilly’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a tad bit lower at 5.03, but that still puts him in Ryan Franklin territory. Looking on the bright side, Lilly’s strikeout ratio has always been quite good. His 7.05 K/9 in 2005 rate him ahead of guys like Matt Clement, Jeremy Bonderman, Barry Zito, Kevin Millwood, Roy Oswalt and John Smoltz, just to name a few. However, K/9 obviously doesn’t paint the whole picture because all of those guys have a better K/BB ratio than Lilly. Making more than $3,000,000 is a little steep, but for the right deal, I would certainly take a chance on Lilly. And, c’mon…don’t you think a guy named Theodore Roosevelt Lilly should be pitching for a team in the United States?!?
The Mets’ Odd Man Out: Honestly, the best time to trade for Jae Seo would have been earlier in the year when he was the Mets’ ugly stepchild, wasting away in AAA, watching guys like Kaz Ishii and Victor Zambrano take the hill every fifth day. His value is probably at it’s peak, so the Mets would certainly be “selling high” by dealing Seo over the winter. That said, Seo has turned a corner and is finally pitching like the Asian Games’ gold-medal winner the Mets signed out of South Korea in 1998. Seo is certainly a different pitcher this year than he’s been in years past. His K/9 rate this year (6.51) is the highest it’s been since he’s seen regular playing time in the Major Leagues, but what’s been most impressive is his control. Perhaps Seo is finally regaining his control after having Tommy John surgery a few years ago. Granted, he’s only pitched 73 innings this season, so maybe it’s just a fluke, but Seo’s control has been phenomenal. If he had enough innings to qualify, his K/BB ratio of 5.30 would rank him fourth in all of baseball, behind only Carlos Silva, Ben Sheets and Johan Santana. On the other hand, maybe the guy to trade for is Aaron Heilman. Mets’ manager, Willie Randolph, recently said that he’s impressed with what Heilman has done and that Seo hasn’t secured a spot in the 2006 rotation. When I went to Shea Stadium after being on Good Morning America, I watched Heilman one-hit the Marlins. A former first-round pick in 2001, the 26-year-old righty out of Notre Dame is pitching well this season. His 9.06 K/9 through 100.1 innings is fantastic and his K/BB ratio of 3.37 isn’t too shabby either.
Casey Fossum: If I were to say that the Mariners should trade for a guy with a career ERA of 5.08, you’d think I was crazy. I mean, that’s Ryan Franklin-territory, and that’s who we’re trying to replace, right? However, if you dig a little deeper, Fossum is semi-intriguing. The 27-year-old lefty has always posted solid K rates. This year, Fossum’s K/9 of 7.41 ranks him 21st out of all of MLB’s qualified starters. It’s better than C.C. Sabathia, Matt Clement, Barry Zito, Kevin Millwood and Roy Oswalt. The problem is with his control. Fossum ranks 40th out of 44 qualifying AL pitchers in BB/G with 3.2 and leads all of baseball with 18 beanballs. To put that in perspective, Moyer, Pineiro, Meche and Franklin have hit 19 batters combined this year. So, the question with Fossum is, can you teach control? And, if you can (and I’m not sure whether it can be taught or not), is there a price? Is it give and take – in other words, will improved control cause Fossum’s strikeout rate to dip? That’s not a question I can answer, but Fossum’s a guy that I wouldn’t mind seeing at the back end of next year’s Mariners rotation.
Aaron Harang: For a big man (6’7”, 270 lbs.), Harang doesn’t have the overpowering stuff you might expect. His fastball is in the low 90s, so that might be a strike against him if you’re searching for the next Jason Schmidt. However, you can’t argue with the results. His K/9 rate of 7.04 ranks him 26th out of all of MLB’s qualifying pitchers, ahead of guys like Matt Clement, Jeremy Bonderman, Barry Zito, Roy Oswalt and Kevin Millwood. His K/BB rate of 3.12 is solid as well, good for 24th in all of baseball (again, out of qualifying pitchers). In fact, Harang might be one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. So, perhaps he’s not available. I’ve read in some places that the Reds consider him their ace. On the other hand, he did clear waivers in August, so I don’t think it’s entirely out of the question. Oh, and if you’re wondering what Harang looks like, he looks something like this.