Every year I try and predict what I think will happen during the upcoming season. That way, when something happens in September or October that I predicted would happen in March, I can say, “See, I
knew that would happen!” Of course, if things don’t go exactly as I predicted, you won’t see me writing, “Wow! Look how wrong I was!” Mostly I like to make predictions because it’s just fun to daydream about the impending season. Opening Day is less than two weeks away and I couldn’t be more excited for baseball! Barring anything crazy happening between now and Opening Day, here are my official predictions for the 2007 MLB season:
Note: I didn’t want to post this and then have it pushed down by YouTube Friday. So, I’m skipping YouTube Friday this week, so you can read this “Gleeman-length” prediction post. Have a great weekend!
AL EAST
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees*
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Baltimore Orioles
The Red Sox are a very solid team. Obviously, they’re going to put a lot of runs on the board with
Manny Ramirez, Big Papi
David Ortiz and the addition of
J.D. Drew. They have good depth and one of the best benches in baseball. Sure, their rotation and bullpen has some questions with
Jonathan Papelbon moving back to the closer role, but
Curt Schilling is always solid, I think
Josh Beckett will rebound and
Daisuke Matsuzaka will take the league by storm, ala Ichiro in 2001.
The Yankees won’t have trouble scoring runs, either with their potent lineup that is scary 1-9. Getting full seasons out of
Hideki Matsui and
Bobby Abreu will help, and it will be interesting to see if
Alex Rodriguez can become the first Yankee since Babe Ruth to hit 30+ HRs in his first four seasons as a Yankee. However, I see question marks in their rotation.
Mike Mussina and
Andy Pettitte should be solid at the top, but I don’t see
Chien-Ming Wang repeating his success from last season and
Kei Igawa doesn’t impress me.
Phil Hughes is legit and the sooner the Yankees bring him up, the better off they’ll be. If
Roger Clemens decides to return to the Bronx, he could be the Yankees’ missing link that pushes them to the top of the division.
The Blue Jays are a solid team and could surprise if injuries strike the Yankees or Red Sox. I love
Roy Halladay and if
A.J. Burnett can stay healthy, they form one of the best 1-2 combos in the game.
Vernon Wells is a great player and I’ll always remember
Troy Glaus for hitting the longest HR I’ve ever seen.
The Devil Rays are on the way up and could contend for the division in the next 2-3 years if everything breaks right. Right now, they have a great young core of position players like
Carl Crawford,
Rocco Baldelli and
Delmon Young. They're thin in the pitching department, but they have some studs coming soon to help
Scott Kazmir in the rotation. They would be wise to trade one of their outfielders for a SP.
The Orioles seem to be treading water and are heading in the opposite direction of the Devil Rays.
Miguel Tejada is a great player,
Nick Markakis is a budding star and
Brian Roberts is ok, but the rest of the Orioles’ lineup is pretty sorry and they have very few position prospects that could impact their lineup in 2007. On the mound,
Erik Bedard had a nice breakout season last year and I’m hopeful that
Daniel Cabrera will turn that corner as well. But, a team battling for fourth place shouldn’t spend nearly $75 million on
Aubrey Huff,
Jay Payton,
Danys Baez,
Jamie Walker,
Steve Trachsel and
Chad Bradford.
AL CENTRAL
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
The Indians are much better than their 78-84 in 2006 would indicate. Anchored by young stars,
Grady Sizemore and
C.C. Sabathia, the Indians have a nice supporting cast in place and should prevail in the tough AL Central.
Losing
Francisco Liriano this season was a big hit for the Twins,but they have good depth with
Matt Garza,
Boof Bonser,
Glen Perkins and possibly
Kevin Slowey, as well as a top-notch bullpen. Outside of
Joe Mauer and
Justin Morneau, their lineup isn’t very awe-inspiring. It seems that it’s a lineup where the sum is better than it’s parts. Or, maybe I’m just fixated on the fact that
Nick Punto is their starting third baseman. Seriously?
I think the Tigers’ success last season was a little fluky.
Jeremy Bonderman is a horse, but
Kenny Rogers will come back to earth and I’m slightly concerned about the durability of
Justin Verlander. On the other hand, with the addition of
Gary Sheffield, the Tigers’ lineup can match up with just about anybody.
The White Sox have a decent rotation, but it seems as though all five starters could implode at any time. I like the group of cheap hard-throwers GM Kenny Williams has put together for the White Sox bullpen, though.
Jermaine Dye,
Paul Konerko and
Jim Thome form an explosive middle-of-the-order, but the lineup is balanced by out-machines like
Scott Podsednik,
Darin Erstad and
Juan Uribe, who murders people…just not pitchers.
With a loaded farm system that includes
Alex Gordon,
Billy Butler and
Luke Hochevar, the Royals were on their way back to respectability…but then they signed
Gil Meche to a 5-year, 55-million-dollar deal. Ouch. Their lineup has some bright spots, but their pitching is just pathetic. I always wanted them to stretch
Andy Sisco into a starter, but instead they traded him to the White Sox. The new KC pitcher I’ll be rooting for is another Rule 5 pick,
Joakim Soria.
AL WEST
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
The AL West could be a real dogfight this season. It’s going to be tight, top to bottom, and it should be a very exciting September. The Angels seem to be the chic pre-season favorite, but I’m not sold. In such a tight division, why bet against Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics? Yes, they lost
Frank Thomas and
Barry Zito, but
Dan Haren and a healthy
Rich Harden could be one of the best 1-2 punches in the game. But, health is a big concern for Harden and the A’s have some questions regarding health in their lineup, as well. Already this spring, they’ve lost
Mark Kotsay and
Bobby Kielty. Obviously, health is an important factor for any team’s success, but it is the
key to Oakland’s potential success in 2007. If
Bobby Crosby and
Eric Chavez avoid their annual DL stints, it will be a huge step in the right direction for the A’s.
The Angels are the early favorite, but I’m not sure why. Yes,
Vladimir Guerrero is awesome. And I love
John Lackey,
Howie Kendrick and the relief duo of
Francisco Rodriguez and
Scot Shields. But, after that…meh.
Gary Matthews Jr. absolutely won’t hit .313/.371/.495 again.
Chone Figgins and
Orlando Cabrera are a joke of a tandem on the left side of the infield. Can
Casey Kotchman finally live up to his potential? In the rotation, I already mentioned that Lackey is a beast.
Kelvim Escobar is solid, but I’m predicting a baaaaad sophomore slump for
Jered Weaver, who will open the season on the DL.
And then we have the Mariners. They could easily repeat their title of “Best Last Place Team,” but I think (hope?) they’ll stay out of the cellar this year. I’m expecting a big breakout from
Felix Hernandez. Some people were disappointed by King Felix’s 2006 season, but there were actually a lot of positives. For one, he stayed healthy – which is a huge plus. Two, his ability to rack up strikeouts and groundballs, while limiting walks is a tremendous formula for success. In fact, Felix was in an elite group of AL starters to be above-average in the following three categories: GB%, K/G & BB/G. Check out his company: C.C. Sabathia, Dan Haren, Kevin Millwood, Jeremy Bonderman, Francisco Liriano & Kelvim Escobar. The National League featured guys like Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, John Smoltz, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte & Roger Clemens. Felix was also hampered by some bad luck. His HR/flyball rate of 18.4% is unusually high and will regress to the mean and his xFIP
xFIP ranked 2nd to only Johan Santana for AL pitchers with 150+ innings. And three, he’s young. Really young. “Stupid young,” as Bill Bavasi called him. Do you know how many pitchers had a better K/9 through their 20-year-old season than Felix Hernandez? One. Dwight Gooden’s 9.90 K/9 is the only strikeout rate in the history of baseball better than Felix’s 8.27 for pitchers aged 20 or younger. Felix edged Bob Feller, Bert Blyleven and Jim Palmer, among others. Basically, if you hear anyone bad-mouthing Felix’s 2006 season (AS A 20-YEAR OLD IN MLB!), kick them in the shins. Ok, that’s enough about Felix. But, hey…I love
love LOVE the kid. Where was I? Oh yes…explaining why the Mariners won’t finish in last place again. Felix is a big part of that. Because, let’s get serious – the rest of the rotation is nauseating. It’s King Felix and 4 overpaid junkballers. Another bet to improve is
Jose Lopez. His power disappeared in the second half, but I think his 2007 season will be closer to his .280/.316/.454 line before the All-Star break, rather than his weak .285/.322/.336 second half. You also have to expect improvements from Seattle’s keystones,
Adrian Beltre and
Richie Sexson. Both players started 2006 very slowly, and it’s critical for them to get off to good starts in 2007. From June 1st through the end of the season, Beltre hit a very respectable .286/.343/.543 with 9 home runs in September. The first two months of the season saw Sexson hitting only .205 with just six home runs. Getting solid production out of those two players will vastly improve the Mariners’ chances. Even with Richie being league average, he’s still the second-best 1B in the division. Add in the fact that the M’s are best in the West at C, 3B, LF and CF, and you can see why there’s a smidgen of hope this year.
The Rangers have a lot of hope as well. Many articles have already been written about how new manager Ron Washington is bringing a lot of energy to the Rangers and how much fun they’re having. Well, they might be having a lot of fun in Spring Training, but with their rotation, I don’t think they’ll be having quite as much fun in the regular season. The Rangers have a decent offense, bolstered by the fact that they play in an extreme hitter’s ballpark.
Mark Teixeira is awesome and will rebound after a down year in 2006.
Michael Young is better than average offensively and I really like 2B
Ian Kinsler. But, their offense still has a lot of questions. Will
Brad Wilkerson rebound? How will
Gerald Laird respond to catching full time? And, what’s the deal with
Hank Blalock? More questions lie within the pitching staff.
Kevin Millwood is reliable and
Vicente Padilla is underrated, but can
Brandon McCarthy keep the ball in the park? And, then what?
Robinson Tejada? Is
Edison Volquez ready? Overall, the rotation is weak and I’m not very impressed with the relief corps, either. I’m very skeptical that
Eric Gagne can return to his dominant ways of a couple years ago.
NL EAST
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves*
Philadelphia Phillies
Florida Marlins
Washington Nationals
The Mets have an absolutely explosive lineup, and I think it’s strong enough to carry a rotation that is shaky at best. With
Pedro Martinez out for half of the season, the Mets’ rotation features
Tom Glavine,
Orlando Hernandez,
John Maine,
Oliver Perez and
Chan Ho Park. Eew. Sure, they have
Mike Pelfrey ready to step in, and he should be good, but they have more potential problems than solutions. One solution would be to put
Aaron Heilman back into the rotation – a move I would certainly endorse. And no, it’s not just because I saw him spin a one-hitter the day I was on Good Morning America. Or, they could trade prospect
Lastings Milledge, a move that I think would be short-sighted, but hey…flags fly forever. The Mets’ lineup is stacked with studs like
David Wright,
Jose Reyes,
Carlos Beltran and
Carlos Delgado, and they should be able to score more runs than that staff allows.
Like the A’s, why bet against the Braves? Sure, last season they missed the playoffs for what seems like the first time in my life. But, they have a solid, balanced offensive attack.
Brian McCann is a great young hitter and of course they have
Chipper Jones and
Andruw Jones, so scoring runs won’t be an issue. The rotation is solid, anchored by
John Smoltz and
Tim Hudson and followed by promising youngster
Chuck James. With the off-season acquisitions of
Rafael Soriano and
Mike Gonzalez, the Braves also have one of the best bullpens in the game, certainly the best pair of setup guys. Despite finishing third last year and missing the playoffs for the first time in 14 years, the Braves always find a way to win and I think they’ll return to the playoffs (as the wild card) in 2007.
Dubbed by many to win the NL East, I’m not buying into the Phillies’ hype. Again, they have a good lineup.
Chase Utley is phenomenal, but I expect
Ryan Howard will come back down to earth a little bit. In the rotation, they certainly have depth – with at least six guys who could start. But, it’s a rotation where the name recognition outweighs the talent and the flyball tendencies of the staff are not well suited for Citizen’s Bank Park. The bullpen isn’t great, either and I don’t see the Phillies making the playoffs in 2007.
After trading nearly their whole team away before last season, the Marlins are very young again.
Miguel Cabrera is my favorite player outside of
Mike Cameron and King Felix. The kid is absolutely amazing - he’s so smooth and his power is effortless.
Hanley Ramirez had a great rookie campaign and I fully expect
Jeremy Hermida to bounce back after his disappointing first year. At just 25 years old,
Dontrelle Willis is the old man on a talented young staff. I really like
Scott Olsen and if he can cut down on his free passes, he will be an ace. The Marlins are young and fun to watch, but they’re overmatched in the strong NL East.
Speaking of overmatched, the Washington Nationals are just plain horrible. Their rotation is the worst in the majors, and could probably be topped by many teams’ AAA rotations. There are very few reasons to even care about the Nationals. One, is
Ryan Zimmerman.
Nick Johnson and
Austin Kearns have also been two of my favorites, when they’re healthy. And, of course there’s
Chris Snelling, who I miss and wish the very best. But, the Nationals are a mess (unfortunately, they’re the
second-worst mess in DC), and I think they’re the favorites for the
Pedro Alvarez sweepstakes.
NL CENTRAL
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
Good things are brewing in Milwaukee. Sorry, that was cheesy – even for a team from Wisconsin. But, seriously – most people will probably pick the World Champion Cardinals or Lou Piniella’s revamped Cubs, but I really like the Brew Crew to win the NL Central. Their rotation is solid, especially if
Ben Sheets can stay healthy. I mean, how underrated is
Dave Bush? Did you know that, in 10 fewer innings, Bush had the exact same number of strikeouts
and walks as Roy Oswalt? Did anybody notice? Not really.
Chris Capuano is a solid number three and the Brewers have a quietly effective bullpen. The lineup has some nice young players like
Prince Fielder, who has the potential to hit 40+ HRs.
Rickie Weeks should improve upon his .279/.363/.404 line and
Bill Hall has a bat that will play just about anywhere. GM Doug Melvin has consistently been one of the most underrated in the game, but in 2007 he will finally be rewarded with a division title.
With
Albert Pujols and
Chris Carpenter on the team, you can never write off the Cardinals. However, I just don’t see them getting back to the playoffs this season. I have faith in
Anthony Reyes and I like
Adam Wainwright in the rotation, but even those two pose question marks, as do the #4 and #5 guys. As for the lineup – outside of Pujols and
Scott Rolen, there isn’t a lot to get excited about.
There is, however, a lot of excitement in the Windy City. The Cubs spent $298 million this winter and yet, they still have problems.
Carlos Zambrano is the man, but with injuries still plaguing
Kerry Wood and
Mark Prior, the rotation isn’t that great. I really like
Rich Hill, but
Ted Lilly and
Jason Marquis aren’t worth the money they’ll be making. The lineup is strong with
Derrek Lee,
Alfonso Soriano and
Aramis Ramirez, but the pitching isn’t strong enough, the team doesn’t get on base enough, and c’mon…they’re the Cubbies!
Roy Oswalt is awesome, but losing Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens really hurts Houston’s rotation. The lineup isn’t that great either.
Lance Berkman is one of the game’s best hitters, but
Carlos Lee is overrated and after him and
Morgan Ensberg, the lineup kind of falls off a cliff.
Speaking of falling off a cliff, check out the Reds’ rotation. It’s just nasty…and not in the good way.
Aaron Harrang is great and led the NL in strikeouts last season. But, I’m not buying into
Bronson Arroyo yet; I think his 2006 was a fluke. And, after that…yikes.
Homer Bailey should definitely keep his bags packed. The lineup will be helped by their home ballpark, but doesn’t have a lot to get excited about. One player to get excited about is 3B
Edwin Encarnacion.
Adam Dunn has huge power, but even bigger holes in his swing and
Ken Griffey Jr. is an average NL right fielder…if he can even stay healthy.
The Pirates are a mess and it’s surprising that GM Dave Littlefield still has a job. You can count the number of good moves he’s made on one hand, but the number of losing seasons is about to move to the second hand.
Jason Bay is great, but he can’t do it all. In the rotation, the guy I like is
Ian Snell, who had more second-half strikeouts than Roger Clemens, Carlos Zambrano and Roy Oswalt.
NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
The Diamondbacks have as much young talent as anyone in the game. With a lineup that includes
Stephen Drew,
Chris Young,
Carlos Quentin and
Conor Jackson, they could put a lot of runs on the board, if they all mesh together. Couple that lineup with a solid rotation including
Brandon Webb,
Randy Johnson and
Doug Davis and I think the Diamondbacks are going to have a special season.
Outside of
Jake Peavy, the Padres don’t have a lot of star power, but they’re above average across the board. As you may know, Mike Cameron is my all-time favorite player, and I’ll also be rooting for
Kevin Kouzmanoff, if only because his nickname (“The Crushin’ Russian”) is simply awesome.
The Dodgers are lucky to have a fantastic farm system, stocked with many players ready to step up, because their everyday lineup could see a lot of time on the DL.
Nomar Garciaparra,
Jeff Kent and
Luis Gonzalez are either injury prone, old, or both. The rotation and bullpen should be solid with the addition of
Jason Schmidt and the emergence of
Takashi Saito.
Outside of
Barry Bonds and
Ray Durham, the Giants lineup shouldn’t strike much fear in opposing pitchers. The rotation is better, with
Barry Zito,
Matt Cain and possibly
Tim Lincecum later in the season.
The Rockies are on the right track, with a lot of young talent – especially in the lineup.
Matt Holliday,
Troy Tulowitzki and
Chris Ianetta add a lot of punch to
Todd Helton and his productive bat. However, the rotation is where the Rockies fall below the rest of the division. Right now, they lack a true ace needed to win the division. They have some good SP talent coming through the ranks, and they’ll have to develop those guys, because what sane pitcher would sign with the Rockies?
In conclusion, it should be a very exciting season. I don’t believe any one division has a clear-cut favorite and that should make for some exciting pennant races. In fact, I think nearly every division could have three (or more) teams with playoff chances on September 1st. Here’s how I think the postseason will play out…
World Series: Boston over Arizona
AL MVP
1) David Ortiz
2) Alex Rodriguez
3) Grady Sizemore
Dark Horse: Gary Sheffield
NL MVP
1) Albert Pujols
2) David Wright
3) Chase Utley
Dark Horse: Brian McCann
AL CY YOUNG
1) Johan Santana
2) Curt Schilling
3) C.C. Sabathia
Dark Horse: Felix Hernandez
NL CY YOUNG
1) John Smoltz
2) Jake Peavy
3) Brandon Webb
Dark Horse: David Bush
AL ROY
1) Alex Gordon
2) Daisuke Matsuzaka
3) Delmon Young
Dark Horse: Dustin Pedroia
Really Dark Horse: Brian Barton
NL ROY
1) Chris Young
2) Chris Ianetta
3) Troy Tulowitzki
Dark Horse: Hunter Pence