# Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Just like most of the blogging community, I'm irritated by the Mariners signing Willie Bloomquist for 2 more years. Granted, it's not a lot of money, but it just goes to show that the M's value certain things differently than an outsider might. It's no secret that the Mariners LOVE Bloomquist. They drafted him twice. He's local, he hustles ("local hustler" just didn't sound right) and he "plays" almost every position. But, c'mon...two years? For comparision's sake, there were 27 players who signed one-year deals yesterday. The only two players who got two-year deals were Mark Teixeira and Willie Bloomquist. Go figure...

Wednesday, January 18, 2006 9:28:40 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback
# Thursday, January 12, 2006

Baseball begins in the spring, the season of new life.
Football begins in the fall, when everything's dying.”

-George Carlin in Baseball and Football

 

One thing that's not dying is the Seahawks popularity. As much as I hate to admit it, Seattle is a football town. There's no doubt about it. I've been working at a team shop right down between Safeco Field and Qwest Field and it's insane how much more popular the Seahawks are, compared to the Mariners. Sure, the Mariners have drawn extremely well over the past couple years, especially when you consider their horrendous records. However, in Seattle, the M's are (at-best) second rate. I realize that the Seahawks are extremely popular this season because of their success. In fact, I’ve even heard this year’s Seahawks season compared to the 1995 Mariners season, and I bet they are quite similar. Right now, the Seahawks have their flag flying over the Space Needle, a new song written about them and tickets to this year’s playoff game sold out in 10 minutes and are going on eBay for about $200 apiece. It’s easy to tell that, for the Seahawks, things are going well.

 

But, just for fun, let's look at a few of the differences I've noticed between the Seahawks’ fan base and the Mariners’ fan base...

 

-The amount of Seahawks fans who dress up for the games is outstanding. At an M’s game, the most dressed up someone will be is wearing a jersey AND a hat. For the Seahawks though, people wear wigs, masks, jerseys and blinking lights. They’re also carrying signs and some have their faces painted. Sure, it’s probably a little over the top…some diehard fans actually wear shoulder pads under their jerseys. When’s the last time you knew of a guy wearing a protective cup to a ballgame?

 

-Speaking of the fans…Mike Holmgren gave a game ball to the fans and their “12th Man Advantage” after the Seahawks beat the New York Giants a few weeks ago. “It was loud,” Holmgren told the Tacoma News Tribune. “Our folks were in it from the get-go and they stayed in it until the very end. That was great. That is what you need for a home-field advantage.” The Mariners, on the other hand, had a night last season when fans were encouraged to knit at the ballpark during a game.

 

Enough said…

Thursday, January 12, 2006 12:25:53 PM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [1]  |  Trackback
# Tuesday, January 10, 2006

520 ballots were cast for this year's induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame. I always get a kick out of looking at the results each year. Not to see who gets in, mind you. No, I always like looking at the results to see which scrubs ended up getting one or two votes. This year it was Walt Weiss. His career numbers are .258/.351/.326. To me, that just screams Hall of Famer. Move over Willie, Mickey and Babe, here comes Walt! Honestly, this is why ballots should be made public. Who in their right mind voted for Walt Weiss, and why should he be allowed to vote next year? It's ridiculous!

Tuesday, January 10, 2006 2:26:32 PM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback
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As you can see, my New Year's resolution to "write more" hasn't been going so well. It's now January 10th and this is the first post of the new year. However, I have already read one book and I did floss that one time. But hey, January is a slow month anyway. I will hopefully be posting some pictures from FanFest and I will probably have a cool little thing to announce in the near future. As for the posting goes, I'll make up for it when the season rolls around. Anyway, on to the first post of 2006!

Of course you're familiar with the old saying, "You learn something new everyday." Well, I use that saying, but I ammend it a little bit. I find myself saying, "Wow, you learn something new everyday...on USSMariner.com!"

Yeah yeah, I know I probably sound like a broken record, or a secret USSM PR Machine. But, I'm not...I just speak the truth. It's no secret that I love that Web Site, but there was one really cool thing that I learned there the other day. It was from Dave, but it was burried in the comments to the post about Pat Gillick signing Ryan Franklin. Check it out...

From USSMariner.com's "Newsflash: Pat Gillick still bad at job"

Comment posted by Dave on January 5th, 2006 at 11:58 am

"The spreadsheet I’m working from doesn’t have BB/9 or K/9, but instead has batted ball percentages. These are better, anyways, because per-nine percentages have flaws that reward pitchers who face more batters in an inning.

K/9, for instance, treats double-strikeout-walk-walk-strikeout-flyball to be equally dominant to groundball-strikeout-strikeout, when the second performance is clearly superior. That’s why I prefer to use BB% and K%. If I ever quote extrapolated rates, it will be BB/G or K/G, which come from the Hardball Times site and use the BB/K percentages to adjust to average baserunner totals...."

I never thought of it like that and for such a long time, I've been using K/9 and not realizing its flaws. But, it certainly does make sense.

So, since I wasted hours of my life a few weeks ago looking at the top pitchers based on K/9, let's see how the list looks for pitchers based on K%, shall we?

Rembember, here are the top 10 qualified pitchers, in order, based on K/9: Mark Prior, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Brett Myers, Jason Schmidt, Pedro Martinez, John Lackey, A.J. Burnett, Scott Kazmir and Doug Davis.

Now, here are the top 10 qualified pitchers, in order, based on the percentage of batters faced that they fanned: Mark Prior, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Brett Myers, Randy Johnson, Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, John Patterson and Chris Carpenter.

Wow, that's quite a difference! 4 guys who weren't on the top 10 K/9 list make it to the top 10 list based on K%. I'm not going to do the non-qualified guys because it's more work, I'm tired and face it...you get the point.

Next up...another stat the guys at USSM toss around: Extra Base Hit %!

Tuesday, January 10, 2006 12:13:56 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback
# Saturday, December 31, 2005

Here are my resolutions for 2006…

 

* Write more. Not only do I want to write more for this blog, I would also like to start writing some fiction and stand up comedy.

 

* Read more. I always joke that I’m much better at buying books than I am at reading them. This year, I would like to lessen the gap. There are many great books on my near-future reading list that I would like to get to in 2006. Starting a book club with Deanna would be fun and would certainly help cross off some of the baseball books on the list. Realistically, if I could read 25 books next year, I would be happy.

 

* Floss. Yeah, I think this is one of them every year, but this is the year that I will start doing it on a regular basis.

 

* Watch more baseball. If my fiancé reads this, the wedding might be called off. However, I would like to watch more baseball. We get the baseball package on Direct TV at my house, but I don’t feel like I use it enough. Now that I have TiVo, I will certainly record more games and match-ups I would like to see. Also, I would really like to go to more high school, college and minor league games.

 

* Interrupt less. This is one of my worst traits and one that frustrates my fiancé the most. I will try my best to not interrupt people so much.

 

* Lose weight. I need to start working off the 50 pounds I gained during my freshman year of college. My incentive will be to look good at my wedding!

 

That’s about it. I hope that posting them here will help me stick to them and will make 2006 another great year!

Saturday, December 31, 2005 1:07:07 PM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback
# Friday, December 30, 2005

Reading through the comments in some of the latest threads on USSMariner have left me shaking my head. Too often, it seems as though people take what they're getting there for granted. Remember folks, you're getting the best Mariners' information and analysis several times a day, for free! Personally, I read USSMariner so much more frequently than the local fishwrap or the M's official site. Not only do I rely on USSMariner for my M's news and rumors, but I also get interesting insight and powerful statistical analysis. So, everytime someone acts like a douchebag in the comments, I feel bad for the authors. Don't these people realize that it's is a labor of love for the five guys running the site? I do, and therefore I would like to take a second and thank Derek, Dave, Jason, Jeff and Peter for all of the hard work they do to keep the good ship USSMariner afloat. It's the first site I check every morning and the last one I read before I go to sleep at night. My days just wouldn't be the same without it. That being said, I present you with...

CONOR'S TOP 10 FAVORITE USSMARINER POSTS...

*Please note that these are in no particular order and I would also like to note that I'm probably missing some of my favorites. Some of these are ones that stand out to me and others are ones I found sifting through the archives and saying, "Oh yeah...that was a great one!"

1) Derek's Attrition War series

He really put the LABOR into that whole "labor of love" thing I was talking about!

2) Mound Conference Theatre

It's too bad the pictures aren't there anymore, but it's still hilarious!

3) Evil Rick Rizzs

It would be a work of comedic genius to have Evil Rick Rizzs narrate a mound conference!

4) Post from 6/28/2003 by JMB

Overheard at the ballpark, 6/28/03:

Son: Dad, what’s O-B-P?

Father: That’s on-base percentage. It’s what his batting average is when there are runners on base.

Way to breed ignorance, moron.

5) Why I Don't Want Miguel Tejada

This was a very rational analysis of why trading for Tejada would be a bad idea for the Mariners. Dave has done some great work like this but, like I said in the comments to this post, I thought this was one of the best posts I've ever seen on USSM. The type of analysis presented here puts the local beat writers and columnists (Derek excluded!) to shame.

6) Statistical Breakdown of the King

and

7) More Felix Fun

When Felix first came up to Seattle, there was so much excitement. Remember the USSM game threads on days when Felix pitched? Sometimes they reached 500 comments! I hope that excitement carries over to the 2006 season and these are two posts that detail why Felix is The King. Can't...stop...drooling...

8) "The Ron Fairly Drinking Game" from 9/28/2003 by DMZ

The next game you watch, listen closely to how many times Fairly starts a sentence with "well…" in order to give himself a second lead time as his brain struggles to come up with an answer. Drives me insane. It’s like having a neighbor with wind chimes, or sitting near some woman who insists on snapping her gum every five seconds.

If you’re into alcohol poisoning (and who isn’t), here’s the Ron Fairly Drinking Game

1 drink:

"out over the plate"

"play for one run"

"put the game in motion"

"good piece of [hitting/pitching/fielding/bench-warming]"

"think opposite field" or "don’t [try/want] to pull the ball"

"Mariners are going to have to [score some runs/put some runs on the board]"

chug:

"As you can see…" (refering to on-screen graphic)

"I’ll tell you what…"

Highly Dangerous Bonus Chugging

"As we mentioned in the [x] inning…" = group must drink beers equal to number of innings between original comment and reference. Days count as 9 (for instance, a comment he made two days before= 18 beers for the group).

I should just keep this updated and stick it up on the sidebar, now that I think about it.

9) Trade Value

This was a really fun, Bill Simmons-esque look at the 40 most valuable players in the game, according to Dave. I also enjoyed Dave's post about which players he'd select at each position to build a franchise, but couldn't find it in the archives...even with the new Google Search feature.

10) Free Agent Landmines

Like I mentioned in the comment about the Tejada post is that one of the main things I've learned from reading USSMariner over the past few years is about relative value for baseball players. Alot of web sites probably listed these guys as some of the top free agents for this year's class, but you can't just look at past performance when looking at free agents. Looking strictly at past performance is why most free agents aren't good deals. Sure, the guy played well in the past, but what will he do in the future? That's what's important, especially when several million dollars is involved. Oh...and guess who's number one on Dave's list of potential landmines: Jarrod Washburn!

So, there you have it. There have been so many fantastic posts over the past few years that I know I'm leaving out some gems. If I remember or find something else, I'll add it to the list. But, really, I just wanted to write a post thanking the guys over at USSMariner for all the hard work they do to keep baseball fanatics, like myself, entertained and informed. I, for one, really appreciate all that they do and will continue to do everything in my power to help it continue. Because we all know what I would rather be doing!

Also, check out...

Jim Thomsen's article about USSMariner from Seattle Weekly

Old articles from Derek, Dave and Jason from StrikeThree.com

And, Derek's articles on Baseball Prospectus

Friday, December 30, 2005 2:03:57 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [1]  |  Trackback
# Friday, December 23, 2005

The other day I told you about my conversation with BP’s Jonah Keri when he mentioned that pitchers are generally more successful when they have at least two of the following three traits: a good strikeout rate, a good walk rate, or a good groundball to flyball ratio. So, I did some research and found the pitchers who qualified for the ERA title that succeeded in two out of those three categories. But, since I have been developing a fondness for bullpen construction and because I like doing research, I decided that I would also find out which pitchers, who didn’t qualify for the ERA title, were successful in two of those three categories.

 

So, to clarify – this section is only dealing with pitchers who pitched less than 162 innings last season. I set the minimum innings for the pitchers at 50, to cut out any guys who might skew the numbers because of their small sample size. Granted, 50 IP isn’t a ton, but I think it will give us numbers that are less likely to be straight-up flukes. I used stats from The Hardball Times and combined stats for pitchers who switched teams during the season.

 

First, let’s look at strikeout rates. There are 218 pitchers who pitched more than 50 innings but less than 162 innings, so we will only be looking at roughly the top 10% for each category.

 

Top 20 Non-Qualified MLB Pitchers Based on K/9

 

Brad Lidge, B.J. Ryan, Rudy Seanez, Francisco Rodriguez, Joe Nathan, Kyle Farnsworth, Brian Fuentes, Ugueth Urbina, Mike Wuertz, Kerry Wood, Mike Gonzalez, Jay Witasick, Francisco Cordero, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner, Brian Bruney, Ron Villone, Juan Rincon, Rafael Betancourt, Scot Shields and Al Reyes.

 

Not too many surprises there. It’s mostly filled with top-notch closers. At the top, you’ve got Lights Out Lidge with his MLB-leading 13.11 K/9 and at the bottom of the elite group, there’s Al Reyes and his nothing-to-complain-about 9.62. Sure, there are some guys that might make you say, “Who?” but for the most part it’s the guys you’d expect.

As an interesting side note, if the cutoff was set at 30 IP, instead of 50, the top 10% would have included guys like Bobby Jenks, Damaso Marte, Julio Santana, Scott Dohmann, Greg Aquino, Chris Ray and Roberto Novoa.

 

Now, same deal, but this time we’re looking at walk rate.

 

Top 20 Non-Qualified MLB Pitchers Based on BB/9

 

Roy Halladay, Ben Sheets, Jae Seo, Carl Pavano, Todd Coffey, David Cortes, Chris Reitsma, Todd Jones, Aaron Cook, Julio Mateo, Luis Ayala, David Riske, Trevor Hoffman, David Bush, Bob Howry, Justin Duchscherer, Justin Speier, Chad Cordero, Mariano Rivera and Curt Schilling.

 

This group ranges from Halladay’s 1.14 BB/9 to Schilling’s 2.12. And folks, it’s time to celebrate…there’s finally a Mariner on one of these lists! Second, remember how I mentioned in the Part 1 that, “…it seems as though relief pitchers, in general, have a higher GB/FB ratio than starting pitchers, but also give up more free passes.

 

Now, we’ll see about the groundball part, but look at the list of non-qualified pitchers with good walk rates. Of the 20 pitchers listed, seven of them are starters. Now, I know that’s not the majority or anything, but when you consider that there’s only about 70 starters in the non-qualified group of 218, it’s interesting that 7 made the top 20 for lowest walk rate.

 

Ok, now on to ESPN’s stats for the GB/FB numbers. Let’s see the group of non-qualified pitchers who made batters kill the most worms!

 

Top 20 Non-Qualified MLB Pitchers Based on GB/FB

 

Sergio Mitre, Felix Hernandez, Todd Williams, Aaron Cook, Chien-Ming Wang, Ryan Dempster. Roy Halladay, Chad Qualls, Kameron Loe, Scott Schoeneweis, Brad Thompson, Kirk Saarloos, Rick White, Terry Mulholland, Ryan Drese, Todd Coffey, D.J. Carrasco, J.P. Howell, Todd Jones and Scot Shields.

 

Now remember, in the first part of this study I didn’t only look at the top tier of pitchers in each category. I also sorted out all the pitchers who were above average according to the numbers on Baseball Prospectus. So, to be fair, let’s see how many pitchers were above average in these three categories. We’ll still be limiting our study to pitchers with more than 50 innings, but less than 162.

 

And, again, here are the league averages from Baseball Prospectus, for reference:

AL K/9: 6.16

NL K/9: 6.57

AL BB/9: 3.02

NL BB/9: 3.29

AL GB/FB: 1.59

NL GB/FB: 1.69

 

American League pitchers with an above-average strikeout rate: B.J. Ryan, Francisco Rodriguez, Joe Nathan, Francisco Cordero, Juan Rincon, Rafael Betancourt, Scot Shields, Kelvim Escobar, Ambiorix Burgos, Mike MacDougal, Mariano Rivera, Andy Sisco, Matt Thornton, Justin Duchscherer, Daniel Cabrera, Neal Cotts, Rich Harden, Kiko Calero, Curt Schilling, Huston Street, Felix Hernandez, Joaquin Benoit, Erik Bedard, Chad Orvella, Tom Gordon, Eddie Guardado, Cliff Politte, J.C. Romero, Seth McClung, Justin Speier, Doug Brocail, Jason Frasor, Brendan Donnelly, Jorge Julio, Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs, Roy Halladay, Ted Lilly, Keiichi Yabu, Scott Schoeneweis, J.J. Putz, J.P. Howell, Ervin Santana, Mike Timlin, Alan Embree, Miguel Batista, Brandon McCaarthy, Orlando Hernandez, Jimmy Gobble, Danys Baez and Wade Miller.

 

National League pitchers with an above-average strikeout rate: Brad Lidge, Rudy Seanez, Brian Fuentes, Mike Wuertz, Kerry Wood, Mike Gonzalez, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner, Al Reyes, Ryan Dempster, Matt Wise, Akinori Otsuka, Scott Eyre, Derrick Turnbow, Scott Linebrink, Oliver Perez, Dan Wheeler, Trevor Hoffman, Russ Springer, Ryan Madson, Ben Sheets, Gary Glover, Guillermo Mota, Marcos Carvajal, Jim Brower, Tyler Walker, Roberto Hernandez, Duaner Sanchez, Jason Isringhausen, Hector Carrasco, Todd Jones, Robinson Tejeda, Yhency Brazoban, Mike DeJean, Chad Cordero, Ezequiel Astacio, John Grabow, Jason Vargas, Lance Cormier, David Weathers, Byung-Hyun Kim, Adam Eaton, Randy Keisler, Glendon Rusch, LaTroy Hawkins, Randy Wolf, Kevin Correia, Chad Qualls, Aaron Fultz and Giovanni Carrara.

 

Players who pitched in both leagues and had an above-average strikeout rate: Kyle Farnsworth, Ugueth Urbina, Jay Witasick and Ron Villone.

 

American League pitchers with an above-average walk rate: Roy Halladay, Carl Pavano, Julio Mateo, David Riske, David Bush, Bob Howry, Justin Duchscherer, Justin Speier, Mariano Rivera, Curt Schilling, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Doug Waechter, Mike Timlin, Rafael Betancourt, Brandon McCarthy, Kevin Brown, Scott Baker, Joe Mays, Lance Carter, John Wasdin, Eddie Guardado, Alan Embree, Felix Hernandez, Chien-Ming Wang, James Baldwin, Jeremi Gonzalez, Terry Mulholland, Brendan Donnelly, Dustin Hermanson, Ricardo Rodriguez, Chris Spurling, Cliff Politte, Joe Nathan, Aaron Small, Kiko Calero, Travis Harper, Huston Street, Jorge Julio and Matt Guerrier.

 

National League pitchers with an above-average walk rate: Ben Sheets, Jae Seo, Todd Coffey, David Cortes, Chris Reitsma, Todd Jones, Aaron Cook, Luis Ayala, Trevor Hoffman, Chad Cordero, Chris Hammond, Brad Halsey, Jose Acevedo, Sunny Kim, Billy Wagner, Odalis Perez, Dan Wheeler, Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, Zach Duke, Brad Thompson, Brian Meadows, John Thomson, Ryan Madson, Chad Qualls, Julian Tavarez, Elmer Dessens, Jose Valverde, Matt Belisle, Kent Mercker, Ezequiel Astacio, Gary Glover, Scott Linebrink, Aaron Fultz, Al Reyes, Woody Williams, Randy Wolf, Brad Lidge, Jeff Fassero, Adam Eaton, Aaron Heilman, Claudio Vargas, Russ Springer, Derrick Turnbow, Tim Stauffer, Geoff Geary, Shawn Estes, Glendon Rusch and Rudy Seanez.

 

Pitchers who pitched in both leagues and had an above-average walk rate: John Halama, Pedro Astacio, Roman Colon and Darrell May.

 

American League pitchers with an above-average groundball rate: Felix Hernandez, Todd Williams, Chien-Ming Wang, Roy Halladay, Kameron Loe, Scott Schoeneweis, Kirk Saarloos, Terry Mulholland, D.J. Carrasco, J.P. Howell, Scot Shields, Mike MacDougal, Brian Shouse, Scott Downs, Mariano Rivera, Doug Brocail, J.J. Putz, Sidney Ponson, Steve Kline, J.C. Romero, Daniel Cabrera, Bob Wickman, Kevin Brown, Mike Wood, Ricardo Rodriguez and Carl Pavano.

 

National League pitchers with an above-average groundball rate: Sergio Mitre, Aaron Cook, Ryan Dempster, Chad Qualls, Brad Thompson, Rick White, Todd Coffey, Todd Jones, Dan Kolb, Scott Erickson, Matt Belisle, Jason Jennings, Bradon Looper, Chris Reitsma, Jason Isringhausen, Akinori Otsuka, Zach Duke, Derrick Turnbow, Jeff Fassero, Mike DeJean and Julian Tavarez.

 

Pitchers who pitched in both leagues and had an above-average groundball rate: Ryan Drese and Jay Witasick.

 

So, how many non-qualified pitchers were above average in at least two categories? 61...

 

American League pitchers who were above average in at least two of the three categories: Joe Nathan, Scot Shields, Mariano Rivera, Justin Duchscherer, Daniel Cabrera, Kiko Calero, Curt Schilling, Felix Hernandez, Eddie Guardado, Cliff Politte, Doug Brocail, Justin Speier, Brendan Donnelly, Jorge Julio, Huston Street, Roy Halladay, Scott Downs, Scott Schoeneweis, J.J. Putz, J.P. Howell, Mike Timlin, Alan Embree, Brandon MacCarthy, Mike MacDougal, Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano, Chien-Ming Wang and J.C. Romero.

 

National League pitchers who were above average in at least two of the three categories:  Brad Lidge, Rudy Seanez, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner, Al Reyes, Ryan Dempster, Akinori Otsuka, Derrick Turnbow, Scott Linebrink, Dan Wheeler, Trevor Hoffman, Russ Springer, Ryan Madson, Ben Sheets, Gary Glover, Jason Isringhausen, Todd Jones, Mike DeJean, Ezequiel Astacio, Adan Eaton, Glendon Rusch, Randy Wolf, Chad Qualls, Aaron Fultz, Todd Coffey, Chris Reitsma, Aaron Cook, Zach Duke, Brad Thompson, Matt Belisle, Julian Tavarez and Jeff Fassero.

 

Pitchers who pitched in both leagues and were above average in at least two of the three categories: Jay Witasick.

 

So, there you have it. There were 311 pitchers that pitched more than 50 innings in the big leagues last season. 93 of them were above average in at least two of the following three categories: K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB. As I stated last time, obviously a pitcher can succeed without being above-average in two of the three categories. No one’s going to argue that B.J. Ryan (who, you’ll notice didn’t make the list) wasn’t a successful pitcher last season. However, being above average in at least two of those three categories simply makes it easier for the pitcher to be successful. Just think about it like this: Having a good K/9 is necessary because the less batters you allow to put the ball in play, the better the chance you have of them not scoring. Having a good BB/9 is necessary because the fewer batters you give first base to, the fewer chances they have to score. And having a good GB/FB ratio is necessary because less runs are produced on ground balls than on fly balls. That being said, I don’t believe that the three categories are necessarily of equal value. However, looking into that is for another day. And, I know I mentioned that I was thinking about doing one of these posts for minor leaguers, but there’s just so freaking many of them! Plus, they switch teams and leagues so frequently that it’s really overwhelming. I may still attempt it sometime this winter, but don’t hold your breath. If you like these posts and find them as interesting as I do, you’re better off looking forward to a (Not So) Successful Pitchers post and a Successful Pitchers Wrap Up post. Those are more likely to make it onto this fine site. And, if you got this far…thank you and Happy Holidays!

Friday, December 23, 2005 12:58:13 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback
# Sunday, December 18, 2005

First off, I’d like to say that I had a wonderful time with my father at the Mind Game / BP2006 event last night at Third Place Books, in Bothell. Jonah Keri from Baseball Prospectus and Jeff Shaw from USSMariner are two of the nicest guys around. I also saw my friend Deanna and we talked about possibly starting a baseball book club, which is something I would really enjoy. Third Place Books is a great place and, of course, it’s always fun to talk about baseball. I was talking to Jonah after the event and I asked him what he thought of Zack Greinke. Jonah said that he didn’t like him because, like the Mariners’ recent addition, Greinke really only does one thing well – he limits the number of free passes he allows. Jonah said that pitchers are generally more successful when they have at least two of the following three traits: a good strikeout rate, a good walk rate, or a good groundball to flyball ratio.

 

 So, let’s take a look at which MLB pitchers had at least two of those traits last season. In order to do this, I’ll be looking at stats on ESPN.com and from The Hardball Times, and looking only at pitchers who qualified for the ERA title. There were 93 qualifying pitchers in Major League Baseball last season. For a pitcher to qualify for one of the three categories, he must be in the top 20%, which would make him in the top 18 out of 93. Let’s take a look at which pitchers were in the top 18 in each category…

 

Top 18 Qualified MLB Pitchers Based on K/9

 

  1. Mark Prior
  2. Jake Peavy
  3. Johan Santana
  4. Brett Myers
  5. Jason Schmidt
  6. Pedro Martinez
  7. John Lackey
  8. A.J. Burnett
  9. Scott Kazmir
  10. Doug Davis
  11. Randy Johnson
  12. John Patterson
  13. Josh Beckett
  14. Carlos Zambrano
  15. Javier Vazquez
  16. Chris Carpenter
  17. Roger Clemens
  18. Noah Lowry

 

Top 18 Qualified MLB Pitchers Based on BB/9

 

  1. Carlos Silva
  2. David Wells
  3. Brad Radke
  4. Paul Byrd
  5. Josh Towers
  6. Greg Maddux
  7. Mark Buehrle
  8. Andy Pettitte
  9. Jon Lieber
  10. Jeff Weaver
  11. Matt Morris
  12. Bartolo Colon
  13. Johan Santana
  14. Roy Oswalt
  15. Randy Johnson
  16. Chris Carpenter
  17. Jon Garland
  18. Javier Vazquez

 

Top 18 Qualified MLB Pitchers Based on GB/FB

 

  1. Brandon Webb
  2. Jake Westbrook
  3. Derek Lowe
  4. Mark Mulder
  5. Tim Hudson
  6. A.J. Burnett
  7. Jamey Wright
  8. Chris Carpenter
  9. Greg Maddux
  10. Cory Lidle
  11. Jason Johnson
  12. Victor Zambrano
  13. Mark Redman
  14. Carlos Zambrano
  15. Andy Pettitte
  16. Matt Morris
  17. Freddy Garcia
  18. Horacio Ramirez

 

So, there are only 10 pitchers who are in the top 20% in at least two of the categories: A.J. Burnett, Chris Carpenter, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Matt Morris, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, Johan Santana, Javier Vazquez, and Carlos Zambrano. But, what if we expand it a little bit? How many pitchers would make the cut if, instead of having to be in the top 20% of a category, the guy just had to be above average? Let’s see…

 

According to Baseball Prospectus, here are last season’s league averages for the stats we’re looking at:

AL K/9: 6.16

NL K/9: 6.57

AL BB/9: 3.02

NL BB/9: 3.29

AL GB/FB: 1.59

NL GB/FB: 1.69

 

American League pitchers with an above-average strikeout rate: Johan Santana, John Lackey, Scott Kazmir, Randy Johnson, Chris Young, C.C. Sabathia, Mike Mussina, Casey Fossum, Jeremy Bonderman, Matt Clement, Kevin Millwood, Jose Contreras, Danny Haren, Barry Zito, Cliff Lee and Bartolo Colon.

 

National League pitchers with an above-average strikeout rate: Mark Prior, Jake Peavy, Brett Myers, Jason Schmidt, Pedro Martinez, A.J. Burnett, Doug Davis, John Patterson, Josh Beckett, Carlos Zambrano, Javier Vazquez, Chris Carpenter, Roger Clemens, Noah Lowry, Chris Capuano, Esteban Loaiza, Aaron Harang, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt, Brandon Webb and John Smoltz.

 

American League pitchers with above-average walk rates: Carlos Silva, David Wells, Brad Radke, Paul Byrd, Josh Towers, Mark Buehrle, Bartolo Colon, Johan Santana, Randy Johnson, Jon Garland, Jason Johnson, Mike Maroth, Danny Haren, Kyle Lohse, Cliff Lee, Jamie Moyer, Mike Mussina, Bronson Arroyo, Freddy Garcia, Scott Elarton, Jake Westbrook, Kevin Millwood, Kenny Rogers, Chris Young, Mark Hendrickson, Jarrod Washburn, Zack Greinke, Joel Pineiro, Rodrigo Lopez, Jeremy Bonderman, Tim Wakefield, C.C. Sabathia, Bruce Chen, Ryan Franklin, Nate Robertson and Joe Blanton.

 

National League pitchers with an above-average walk rate: Greg Maddux, Andy Pettitte, Jon Lieber, Jeff Weaver, Matt Morris, Roy Oswalt, Chris Carpenter, Javier Vazquez, Cory Lidle, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Dontrelle Willis, Brad Penny, Aaron Harang, Jake Peavy, Derek Lowe, Esteban Loaiza, Brandon Webb, Eric Milton, Kris Benson, Tom Glavine, Brian Lawrence, Roger Clemens, Ramon Ortiz, Brett Tomko, Tomo Ohka, Josh Fogg, Mark Redman, Brett Myers, Jeff Suppan, John Patterson, Horacio Ramirez, Jason Marquis, Tim Hudson, Livan Hernandez, Mark Mulder, Brandon Claussen and Mark Prior.

 

American League pitchers with an above-average groundball rate: Jake Westbrook, Jason Johnson and Freddy Garcia.

 

National League pitchers with an above-average groundball rate: Brandon Webb, Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, A.J. Burnett, Jamey Wright, Chris Carpenter, Greg Maddux and Cory Lidle.

 

The first thing I noticed about these lists is that there’s a large number of pitchers who have above average walk rates. At the same time, there are very few pitchers on the list with above-average groundball rates. Remember, I was only looking at pitchers who qualified for the ERA title last season (meaning they pitched at least 162 innings). Therefore, it seems as though relief pitchers, in general, have a higher GB/FB ratio than starting pitchers, but also give up more free passes.

 

Anyway, how many pitchers now fit the bill of being above average in at least two of the three necessary categories? 32…

 

American League: Johan Santana, Randy Johnson, Chris Young, C.C. Sabathia, Mike Mussina, Jeremy Bonderman, Kevin Millwood, Danny Haren, Cliff Lee, Bartolo Colon, Jake Westbrook, Jason Johnson and Freddy Garcia.

 

National League: Mark Prior, Jake Peavy, Brett Myers, Pedro Martinez, A.J. Burnett, John Patterson, Chris Carpenter, Roger Clemens, Esteban Loaiza, Aaron Harang, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt, Brandon Webb, John Smoltz, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, Cory Lidle, Greg Maddux and Derek Lowe.

 

As you can see, that’s a good group of pitchers. As you may also notice, there isn’t one Mariner (although Felix will certainly join this group next year). It’s also interesting to note that nearly 22% of these pitchers have been or are part of the A’s organization. One name that you probably would have guessed would be on there is the D-Train, Dontrelle Willis. No one will argue that his season last year wasn’t successful, yet he didn’t make the list. That’s because his K/9 was just below average, coming in at 6.47. His walk rate was very good at 2.09 and his GB/FB ratio was also just below average at 1.40. So, obviously a pitcher can succeed without being above-average in two of the three categories. However, when that happens it’s probably either a case of the pitcher having a very good defense behind him, or someone who is above average in one category and right around the average mark in the other two. But these three categories are certainly important and although I had a basic understanding that you want pitchers with good strikeout rates, low walk rates and that groundballs were better than flyballs, speaking to Jonah and doing this little bit of research certainly reinforced those thoughts. Next, I’m going to try and look at: pitchers who rank poorly in those categories, relief pitchers who do well in those categories and minor league players who do well in those categories. Stay tuned!

Sunday, December 18, 2005 4:31:23 PM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback
# Friday, December 16, 2005

You may have seen this already, because Deanna posted it in the comments of USSMariner. However, in case you missed it, check it out. It's a nice blend of disgusting and hilarious. My mouth was open the entire time I was listening to it. I can't believe someone actually spent money on this crap...

Friday, December 16, 2005 4:02:53 PM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)  #    Disclaimer  |  Comments [0]  |  Trackback