First off, I’d like to say that I had a wonderful time with my father at the Mind Game / BP2006 event last night at Third Place Books, in Bothell. Jonah Keri from Baseball Prospectus and Jeff Shaw from USSMariner are two of the nicest guys around. I also saw my friend Deanna and we talked about possibly starting a baseball book club, which is something I would really enjoy. Third Place Books is a great place and, of course, it’s always fun to talk about baseball. I was talking to Jonah after the event and I asked him what he thought of Zack Greinke. Jonah said that he didn’t like him because, like the Mariners’ recent addition, Greinke really only does one thing well – he limits the number of free passes he allows. Jonah said that pitchers are generally more successful when they have at least two of the following three traits: a good strikeout rate, a good walk rate, or a good groundball to flyball ratio.

 So, let’s take a look at which MLB pitchers had at least two of those traits last season. In order to do this, I’ll be looking at stats on ESPN.com and from The Hardball Times, and looking only at pitchers who qualified for the ERA title. There were 93 qualifying pitchers in Major League Baseball last season. For a pitcher to qualify for one of the three categories, he must be in the top 20%, which would make him in the top 18 out of 93. Let’s take a look at which pitchers were in the top 18 in each category…

Top 18 Qualified MLB Pitchers Based on K/9

1. Mark Prior
2. Jake Peavy
3. Johan Santana
4. Brett Myers
5. Jason Schmidt
6. Pedro Martinez
7. John Lackey
8. A.J. Burnett
9. Scott Kazmir
10. Doug Davis
11. Randy Johnson
12. John Patterson
13. Josh Beckett
14. Carlos Zambrano
15. Javier Vazquez
16. Chris Carpenter
17. Roger Clemens
18. Noah Lowry

Top 18 Qualified MLB Pitchers Based on BB/9

1. Carlos Silva
2. David Wells
3. Brad Radke
4. Paul Byrd
5. Josh Towers
6. Greg Maddux
7. Mark Buehrle
8. Andy Pettitte
9. Jon Lieber
10. Jeff Weaver
11. Matt Morris
12. Bartolo Colon
13. Johan Santana
14. Roy Oswalt
15. Randy Johnson
16. Chris Carpenter
17. Jon Garland
18. Javier Vazquez

Top 18 Qualified MLB Pitchers Based on GB/FB

1. Brandon Webb
2. Jake Westbrook
3. Derek Lowe
4. Mark Mulder
5. Tim Hudson
6. A.J. Burnett
7. Jamey Wright
8. Chris Carpenter
9. Greg Maddux
10. Cory Lidle
11. Jason Johnson
12. Victor Zambrano
13. Mark Redman
14. Carlos Zambrano
15. Andy Pettitte
16. Matt Morris
17. Freddy Garcia
18. Horacio Ramirez

So, there are only 10 pitchers who are in the top 20% in at least two of the categories: A.J. Burnett, Chris Carpenter, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Matt Morris, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, Johan Santana, Javier Vazquez, and Carlos Zambrano. But, what if we expand it a little bit? How many pitchers would make the cut if, instead of having to be in the top 20% of a category, the guy just had to be above average? Let’s see…

According to Baseball Prospectus, here are last season’s league averages for the stats we’re looking at:

AL K/9: 6.16

NL K/9: 6.57

AL BB/9: 3.02

NL BB/9: 3.29

AL GB/FB: 1.59

NL GB/FB: 1.69

American League pitchers with an above-average strikeout rate: Johan Santana, John Lackey, Scott Kazmir, Randy Johnson, Chris Young, C.C. Sabathia, Mike Mussina, Casey Fossum, Jeremy Bonderman, Matt Clement, Kevin Millwood, Jose Contreras, Danny Haren, Barry Zito, Cliff Lee and Bartolo Colon.

National League pitchers with an above-average strikeout rate: Mark Prior, Jake Peavy, Brett Myers, Jason Schmidt, Pedro Martinez, A.J. Burnett, Doug Davis, John Patterson, Josh Beckett, Carlos Zambrano, Javier Vazquez, Chris Carpenter, Roger Clemens, Noah Lowry, Chris Capuano, Esteban Loaiza, Aaron Harang, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt, Brandon Webb and John Smoltz.

American League pitchers with above-average walk rates: Carlos Silva, David Wells, Brad Radke, Paul Byrd, Josh Towers, Mark Buehrle, Bartolo Colon, Johan Santana, Randy Johnson, Jon Garland, Jason Johnson, Mike Maroth, Danny Haren, Kyle Lohse, Cliff Lee, Jamie Moyer, Mike Mussina, Bronson Arroyo, Freddy Garcia, Scott Elarton, Jake Westbrook, Kevin Millwood, Kenny Rogers, Chris Young, Mark Hendrickson, Jarrod Washburn, Zack Greinke, Joel Pineiro, Rodrigo Lopez, Jeremy Bonderman, Tim Wakefield, C.C. Sabathia, Bruce Chen, Ryan Franklin, Nate Robertson and Joe Blanton.

National League pitchers with an above-average walk rate: Greg Maddux, Andy Pettitte, Jon Lieber, Jeff Weaver, Matt Morris, Roy Oswalt, Chris Carpenter, Javier Vazquez, Cory Lidle, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Dontrelle Willis, Brad Penny, Aaron Harang, Jake Peavy, Derek Lowe, Esteban Loaiza, Brandon Webb, Eric Milton, Kris Benson, Tom Glavine, Brian Lawrence, Roger Clemens, Ramon Ortiz, Brett Tomko, Tomo Ohka, Josh Fogg, Mark Redman, Brett Myers, Jeff Suppan, John Patterson, Horacio Ramirez, Jason Marquis, Tim Hudson, Livan Hernandez, Mark Mulder, Brandon Claussen and Mark Prior.

American League pitchers with an above-average groundball rate: Jake Westbrook, Jason Johnson and Freddy Garcia.

National League pitchers with an above-average groundball rate: Brandon Webb, Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, A.J. Burnett, Jamey Wright, Chris Carpenter, Greg Maddux and Cory Lidle.

The first thing I noticed about these lists is that there’s a large number of pitchers who have above average walk rates. At the same time, there are very few pitchers on the list with above-average groundball rates. Remember, I was only looking at pitchers who qualified for the ERA title last season (meaning they pitched at least 162 innings). Therefore, it seems as though relief pitchers, in general, have a higher GB/FB ratio than starting pitchers, but also give up more free passes.

Anyway, how many pitchers now fit the bill of being above average in at least two of the three necessary categories? 32…

American League: Johan Santana, Randy Johnson, Chris Young, C.C. Sabathia, Mike Mussina, Jeremy Bonderman, Kevin Millwood, Danny Haren, Cliff Lee, Bartolo Colon, Jake Westbrook, Jason Johnson and Freddy Garcia.

National League: Mark Prior, Jake Peavy, Brett Myers, Pedro Martinez, A.J. Burnett, John Patterson, Chris Carpenter, Roger Clemens, Esteban Loaiza, Aaron Harang, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt, Brandon Webb, John Smoltz, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, Cory Lidle, Greg Maddux and Derek Lowe.

As you can see, that’s a good group of pitchers. As you may also notice, there isn’t one Mariner (although Felix will certainly join this group next year). It’s also interesting to note that nearly 22% of these pitchers have been or are part of the A’s organization. One name that you probably would have guessed would be on there is the D-Train, Dontrelle Willis. No one will argue that his season last year wasn’t successful, yet he didn’t make the list. That’s because his K/9 was just below average, coming in at 6.47. His walk rate was very good at 2.09 and his GB/FB ratio was also just below average at 1.40. So, obviously a pitcher can succeed without being above-average in two of the three categories. However, when that happens it’s probably either a case of the pitcher having a very good defense behind him, or someone who is above average in one category and right around the average mark in the other two. But these three categories are certainly important and although I had a basic understanding that you want pitchers with good strikeout rates, low walk rates and that groundballs were better than flyballs, speaking to Jonah and doing this little bit of research certainly reinforced those thoughts. Next, I’m going to try and look at: pitchers who rank poorly in those categories, relief pitchers who do well in those categories and minor league players who do well in those categories. Stay tuned!